Mortgage/Economic Outlook for the Week of November 24, 2008
This mortgage market is going to be bounced around this week by a pile of economic data, two Treasury auctions and a holiday shortened trading week.
The economic data is generally expected to mortgage market friendly, but the 5-year Treasury note auction and possible snap-back trading action in the stock markets may prevent mortgage interest rates from making a sustained move to lower levels. Heads up.
The pace of existing homes sales fell a bit harder than most analysts expected in October - posting a drop of 3.1% on a month-over-month basis. The median home price dropped 11.3% to $183,300 on a year-over-year basis. The annual percentage drop was the largest since the National Association of Realtors began keeping records in 1968. Mortgage investors have become accustomed to puny numbers from the housing sector -- so today's batch of soft existing home sales data didn't cause much of a stir.
Uncle Sam will be in the credit market Mondayafternoon looking to borrow a record setting $36 billion in the form of 2-year notes. Persistent fears about the global economic downturn - should drive risk adverse investors to this offering. If so, look for this event to have little, if any direct impact on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates.
Just as a reminder - don't forget we are working a holiday shortened week. Thursday's market closure for the Thanksgiving Holiday will be bracketed by an early close on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET as well as an early close on Friday at 2:00 p.m. ET. It is not unusual for mortgage market volatility to spike wildly during thinly traded pre- and post-holiday sessions.
Stay tuned!
The economic data is generally expected to mortgage market friendly, but the 5-year Treasury note auction and possible snap-back trading action in the stock markets may prevent mortgage interest rates from making a sustained move to lower levels. Heads up.
The pace of existing homes sales fell a bit harder than most analysts expected in October - posting a drop of 3.1% on a month-over-month basis. The median home price dropped 11.3% to $183,300 on a year-over-year basis. The annual percentage drop was the largest since the National Association of Realtors began keeping records in 1968. Mortgage investors have become accustomed to puny numbers from the housing sector -- so today's batch of soft existing home sales data didn't cause much of a stir.
Uncle Sam will be in the credit market Mondayafternoon looking to borrow a record setting $36 billion in the form of 2-year notes. Persistent fears about the global economic downturn - should drive risk adverse investors to this offering. If so, look for this event to have little, if any direct impact on the trend trajectory of mortgage interest rates.
Just as a reminder - don't forget we are working a holiday shortened week. Thursday's market closure for the Thanksgiving Holiday will be bracketed by an early close on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET as well as an early close on Friday at 2:00 p.m. ET. It is not unusual for mortgage market volatility to spike wildly during thinly traded pre- and post-holiday sessions.
Stay tuned!
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